Voluntary carbon credit market seen surging to $242.11 billion by 2035

Market Research Future projects the global voluntary carbon credit market will jump from $4.73 billion in 2025 to $242.11 billion by 2035, driven by Article 6 rules, corporate net-zero targets and rising demand for high-integrity credits. North America leads today, while Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing demand region.

Why it matters: - The voluntary carbon credit market is moving from a niche climate-finance tool into a major global market. - MRFR projects a 48.22% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2035. - Faster growth could strengthen financing for emissions-cutting projects, especially in forestry, clean energy and industrial efficiency. - The shift also raises the stakes for credit quality, verification and registry transparency.

What happened: - Market Research Future estimated the global voluntary carbon credit market at $3.191 billion in 2024. - MRFR said the market will grow from $4.73 billion in 2025 to $242.11 billion by 2035. - The report said the market could reach $16.72 billion in 2025, $25.62 billion in 2026 and $1,284.50 billion by 2035 in a separate projection cited in the release. - The release said the market is moderately fragmented, with competition centered on standard credibility, project pipelines, geographic reach and MRV technology. - Cited players include Verra, Gold Standard, Climate Action Reserve, American Carbon Registry, Plan Vivo, Carbon Trust, South Pole, EcoAct and Natural Capital Partners. - The release included links for a sample PDF, customization and premium research insights.

The details: - Article 6 agreements reached at COP29 in Baku in November 2024 were presented as a key policy unlock for the market. - COP29 finalized rulebook elements for Article 6.2 bilateral carbon credit trading and Article 6.4, the UN-supervised Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. - The UN climate process and other policy institutions said COP29 delivered four formal Article 6 decisions, with implementation accelerating from 2025. - The World Bank said carbon pricing revenues topped $100 billion in 2024. - The World Bank said 80 carbon pricing instruments are now operating worldwide, up from 5 in 2005. - Carbon pricing now covers about 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions, up from 24% in 2023. - The average implemented carbon price has risen to about $19 per tonne in 2025 from just above $10 per tonne in 2015. - The release said that policy momentum is creating a structural demand floor for voluntary credits and is blurring the line between voluntary and compliance markets. - The Science Based Targets initiative said 9,764 companies had validated climate targets by the end of 2025, up 40% from 2024. - SBTi said net-zero commitments rose 61% over the same period. - By January 2026, SBTi had surpassed 10,000 companies with validated science-based targets. - More than 12,000 firms had either validated or committed to setting targets by year-end 2025, according to the release. - The number of organizations with climate targets has more than tripled since 2023. - Asia was described as the fastest-growing regional contributor to SBTi-validated targets. - Nature-based solutions were the largest credit type in 2024, valued at about $0.96 billion. - Renewable energy credits were described as the fastest-growing credit type. - Energy efficiency and industrial process credits were also identified as important segments. - Gold Standard held the largest share of the standards segment. - Verra was described as the fastest-growing standard by new issuance and project pipeline. - The American Carbon Registry and Climate Action Reserve were described as CCP-eligible and central to North America. - Third-party verified credits were valued at about $1.5 billion in 2024. - Self-asserted credits were described as the fastest-growing by count but facing rising scrutiny. - Developed countries held the largest project-location share by value. - Emerging markets were the fastest-growing project-location segment. - Large-scale projects held the largest share in 2024 at about $1.956 billion. - Small-scale community-driven projects were the fastest-growing project-size segment.

Between the lines: - The market’s next phase looks less like a pure offset story and more like a quality and compliance story. - Companies with science-based net-zero targets will need credible credits for residual emissions, which supports demand for higher-integrity supply. - Standards that can prove authenticity, additionality and auditability are likely to gain share. - The release suggests the market is consolidating around verification, not just volume. - North America and Europe appear to be setting the quality bar, while Asia-Pacific is becoming the demand growth engine.

What’s next: - More Article 6-linked transactions should flow as countries and market operators implement COP29 rules. - Corporate procurement is likely to tilt further toward third-party verified and CCP-labeled credits. - Regional policy moves in California, the EU, Brazil, South Korea, South Africa and the UAE could add new demand and supply channels. - Project developers in Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific may see more capital as bilateral mechanisms expand.

The bottom line: - Voluntary carbon credits are entering a scale-up phase, but the winners are likely to be the standards, registries and projects that can prove high integrity under growing regulatory and corporate scrutiny.